Told you so

The lines are up for opening night in NBA and they pretty much confirm what I said about the forecasts from the mathematical model:

• Miami 6 1/2 over Chicago (model said Miami by 5)
• Phoenix 4 1/2 over the Lakers (model said Phoenix by 2)

If the model proves to be able to pick 75 percent of the games to within 2 points all season long, the way it looks like it will do for the betting lines, I may not have to work for a living for much longer.

But I know (or at least I think I know) the way these things will turn out. Thus, I've not yet typed out my resignation.

Boo! Halloween forecast

The model offers these forecasts for the opening night NBA games. Take 'em with a grain of salt, and remembe that the model seems to be MUCH better at forecasting the point spreads than it is of forecasting the outcome of the games:

• Mia 5 over Chi
• Phx 2 over LAL

Wild West

Here's the outcome of the Western Conference, scenario 1:

1. Dallas 64-18
2. Phoenix 63-19
3. San Antonio 61-21
4. L.A. Clippers 53-29
5. Utah 45-37
6. L.A. Lakers 43-29
7. Golden State 43-29
8. Denver 43-29
9. Sacramento 41-41
10. Minnesota 41-41
11. Houston 38-44
12. Memphis 37-45
13. New Orleans 34-48
14. Portland 27-55
15. Seattle 20-62

When I saw these results I did a reality check and looked at last season's win totals. Last season there were two 60 win teams, this projection has three, though this season all are in the West.

Golden State may well be the lower tier team to jell to the point of being able to crack the playoffs.

Utah feels it's much better with a healthy Carlos Boozer and an upgraded outside shooting game with Derek Fisher.

Missing the playoffs would be a disasterous outcome for Houston and Sacramento.

Beasts of the East

Having finished my mathematical forecast of the NBA season, here's scenario 1 for the East Conference standings:

1. Miami 55-27
2. Chicago 55-27
3. Detroit 51-31
4. New Jersey 51-31
5. Indiana 47-35
6. Cleveland 47-35
7. Orlando 44-38
8. Washington 43-39
9. Milwaukee 37-45
10. Boston 32-50
11. Philadelphia 30-52
12. New York 26-56
13. Toronto 24-58
14. Atlanta 18-64
15. Charlotte 17-65

The Bulls would have to be overjoyed with this scenario, the question pending is if Chicago is an elite eastern team with the acquistions of Ben Wallace and P.J. Brown.

If the Sixers are remotely close to 30-52 that locker room would have to become a hell on earth.

How many wins will it take to keep Isiah Thomas from getting the can in NY? I'm thinking more than 26.

Atlanta ahead of Charlotte? Charlotte ahead of Atlanta? Either way, both look to have miserable seasons.

NBA Elitism

In prepping for my forecast for the coming season, I've been discussing with co-workers the Utah Jazz' chances for a very strong showing (50+ wins). What we had decided is:

• In the West there are six teams that are inherently better than the Jazz: Suns, Mavs, Spurs, Clippers,Nuggets and Kings.
• The Jazz are in the second tier of teams that will battle for the remaining two playoff spots that also includes: Rockets, Grizzlies, Hornets, T-Wolves and Lakers.
• The third tier of teams includes three teams that will have to get a lot of breaks throughout the season to contend for a playoff spot includes: Warriors, Sonics, Blazers.

As the season gets closer and I continue to refine my predictions, I have to think the Kings are not as good as we thought. They are not a shoo-in to make the playoffs. They might be the most equal among the equals of the second tier of the West, but they are not an elite team.

We'll get a good idea of the Kings in Novoember, They have home dates with the Pistons (Eastern elite) and Spurs, and a visit to Chicago (potential Eastern contender).

Dribbling Hoops is back!

Right on. I'm looking forward to blogging the NBA this coming season, with special attention to the Utah Jazz. I've changed jobs and there are far more Jazz fans here in the office than there were at the old popsicle stand.